I suppose all this hand-wringing about Verizon would make sense... until you start thinking globally. Any idea where the giants like Nokia sell most of their phones? Ain't in the US. It's my understanding (from someone who should know) that the only reason Nokia even bothers to make CDMA phones is that there was strong enough customer demand from US carriers; but those same carriers aren't what you'd call impressed with the CDMA radio performance Nokia delivers.
Maybe WCDMA, HSDPA, etc (3G) will converge networks... but in today's reality, CDMA is a limiting factor for anyone wanting to go global. Did Apple tie it's hands in the US by limiting itself to GSM (and later HSDPA) for 5 years? Sure. But they left themselves open for an even larger (some might argue many orders of magnitude larger) market overseas. (Just look at how Palm is chasing after global markets now to improve it's business...) After all, various market reports I read about the US mobile market suggest that most US customers are really only interested in voice anyway... that all this PDA, music, and networking are not generally interesting to the majority. Sure, I don't count myself in that group (and I doubt anyone actually participating in these forums would)... but the market is what speaks. And in the US it generally cries for voice.
So... I don't necessarily think Apple will hit a home run it's first time out the door. After all, look at how many changes it made to the iPod. But I also don't count them out just because they're newcomers either.
